The good news about the Sigmoid Curve – and its explanation of life the universe and everything – is that we are not restricted to a single curve. We can start a new curve, and if we have the courage we can make a jump to the new world.
Handy refers to this as the “secret of constant growth”. [p51, location 771 for Kindle]
This is a similar challenge to that described by Hamel and Valikingas – and also similar to the dilemma presented by March between exploration and exploitation.
The challenge we must confront is to pick the best time to change course and jump from our current curve, to the future one.
In the graphic above the two curves are shown as overlapping, and two potential switching points are marked as A and B.
Made even harder to choose when we consider that the pace of change is accelerating and therefore shrinking these curves. Where the ‘X axis’ was once measured in decades, today this will be years or even just months.
- Handy argues that “A” represents the best point to make the jump.
- At this point there are likely to be adequate levels of time, resources and energy available to support the change.
- Unfortunately at “A” the message we detect is that “all is well” – there is no need to change, we are still improving our levels of success.
- In organisations, and often in our personal lives, the energy and incentive to change is delayed until we reach “B”.
- By this point the downturn is starting to bite, and corporate anorexia is being implemented.
- There are no resources available to enable a switch.
Handy describes point “A” as the “pathway through paradox, the way to build a new future while maintaining the present.” The problem is that Handy goes on to assert that making this new change is going to need new people – “Those who lead the second curve are not going to be the people who led the first curve.” [p52]
The hatched area in the graphic represents “a time of great confusion”. In this domain we have two (or more) sets of people and ideas competing to determine the future – and how we might think about it.
“We thought we knew how to run organisations, but the organisations of today bear no resemblance to the ones we knew, and so we have to think again, to find the second curve of management before it is too late.” [p54]
A new way to think about managing organisations, and the professional disciplines that we practice. This brings me back to my original intellectual jumping off point – when our thinking is broken, we cannot adequately address the problem without changing our thinking and the models we are building on.
This is absolutely true in emerging areas of thinking, such as around the field of resilience (as a second wave) where the first wave gave us models of Business Continuity Management and Risk Management thinking.
Where are you on your current curve? Can you envision a future with different thinking?
What do we have to let go? Scientific Management? Systems Thinking? Plan, Do, Check, Act?
New mental models, new perspectives on managing organisation and new thought leadership – not easy to find.
Oh brave new world that can let these ideas in it!
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